Press Release - London 22/6/2016

Will The US Presidential Election Impact On Your Investment Options?

The final year of any presidential term is a time to reflect on the state of the economy whilst at the same time it is coupled with turbulence and uncertainty in financial markets in light of the uncertain changes ahead. 2016 has already been a challenging year for private and corporate investors with the S&P 500 falling, and there are indications that the trend is likely to continue. On 8th November 2016, an historic election will take place in the USA, with Donald Trump as the Republican Candidate and Hilary Clinton as the Democratic Candidate going head to head to become the representative replacing Barack Obama in the White House.  It is unsurprising that there is a proven strong correlation between the election cycle and market performance. First described in the Stock Trader's Almanac in the late 1960's, investment advisory Yale Hirsch theorised how the presidential election cycle impacts on financial market trends. With the final year of a president's second term renowned for unpredictability and poor performance in the economy, now is the time to evaluate investment portfolios and prepare for the potential change ahead. 

Past Performance Predictions For A Changing US Economy.

Since the early 1900's, during the final year of the presidential term, the S&P 500 has, on average, fallen by 1.2 percent. The most significant of these decreases was seen in 2008, year 8 of George W. Bush's last term, with a 41 percent fall*, and early indications are that equities may be subject to challenges during 2016. Although there are other factors that will undoubtedly impact upon financial markets, such as oil prices and issues within the European Union, the uncertainty of the future of outcome of the election will naturally leave investors cautious. Jeff Hirsch, from Stock Trader's Almanac, describes the current presidential campaign in play as "volatile and uncertain" and with a "NASDAQ dismal track record during the 8^thyear" it pays for investors to keep close watch on political movements over the next 5 months and beyond.

Naturally, both Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton have voiced policies that will significantly impact upon the US and potentially global economy should they be elected into the White House:

• Republicans

• Trump has indicated that he would introduce Wall Street businessmen such as Hedge Fund manager, Carl Icahn, to Washington in order to advise on policy.

• Trump claims he will increase employee and manufacturing in America by raising tariffs on China, Mexico and Japan.

• If elected, Trump voiced that he intends to "start building factories and plants here instead of China"

• Democrats

• Seek to cap drug prices which will have a knock on effect on pharmaceutical companies' profits.

• Raising short term capital gains taxes for those earning $400, 000 and above.

• Clinton has voiced her intention to invest in US businesses and seek to "say no to new trade agreements unless that create American jobs, raise wages and improve national security"

The first year of a newly elected president's term can be equally as turbulent as election year, making investment a difficult and potentially volatile prospect.

Research carried out by Princeton University economists**, Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, found that the US economy has performed substantially better under Democratic administrations. Measures included GDP, job creation and industrial production, which were all seen to grow up to 2.5 times faster under Democrats than Republicans, regardless of the starting point. The reasons for these differences are not fully understood, and are not exclusively as a result of presidential decisions, but a trend appears to exist. Only time can tell whether this will continue, should Hilary Clinton be elected as the first female President of the United States.

No wonder investors are edgy.......

Simon Calton, CEO of Carlton James considers the options: "As an investment group, one of our main duties is to complete Due Diligence and research economic trends. I was uncomfortable with the concept of having one physical aspect of security from an investment, where every aspect is out of your control, and believe diversity is the key to our future".

Moving away from a physical asset investment, Carlton James offers investments at the right place, at the right time, using the innovative option to invest in hospitality, housing and land in emerging high demand areas, midscale investment areas and, most of all, areas with more than one ‘Value Generator'. These include areas like the Bakken oil fields, malls and major hIghways and, of course, casinos and sports centres. These micro-economies can be moderately unaffected by political policies. Feasibility studies of these areas show that there is increased demand for hotels, conferencing, leisure and housing.

Although no investment is ever risk free, Carlton James offers investment into their company which specialises in these lucrative and apolitical areas. In an uncertain time in the lead up to the election and beyond, investors may wish to find new opportunities which offer diversification and therefore less liable to fluctuate as a result of activity in the presidential campaigns. With a diverse exit strategy in place including refinancing of developments in order to repay clients at an earlier stage, in a world of uncertainty, Carlton James could be one to watch.

Whatever the outcome of the US Presidential Election during November, it is inevitable that financial markets and fiscal policy will be subject to fluctuation over the coming years. Seeking to diversify your investment portfolios could give you increased opportunities at a challenging time.

For more information on the Carlton James Sky Watch Inn investments mentioned above please visithttp://www.rycalgroup.com/newinvestors

or contact Alison Daff, T: 07891 787600, Sierra Kilo PRskpr@sks-london.co.uk

*US Economy About Money 5/2016

**http://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/papers/DemRep_BlinderWatson_July2015.pdf

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